Former White House staffer says joining AUKUS an 'opportunity' for NZ

A former US White House staff member says joining AUKUS Pillar Two would create an opportunity for New Zealand to "tap in" to advanced technology – despite the threat of "diplomatic blowback" from trading partner China.

Professor Michael Green is the chief executive of the US Studies Centre in Sydney, and has previously worked as Special Assistant to former US President George W. Bush, and on the staff of the US National Security Council at the White House from 2001 through 2005.

Green told Q+A he is in favour of New Zealand joining Pillar Two of the "significant agreement".

"It's an opportunity for those countries, including New Zealand, to open the door and get in the room to extremely advanced technology that's being developed in the US in the UK and to a lesser extent, but significantly in Australia."

The agreement has already seen the US and UK provide advanced technology to Australia in the form of nuclear propulsion for submarines – something he said the US has "only ever done once before in 1957 to the Royal Navy".

He said Pillar Two would see the sharing of emerging technologies such as quantum and cyber and hypersonics, which would be useful for "processing and analysing intelligence".

"Probably New Zealand doesn't need hypersonic missiles, but quantum could be extremely important because quantum computing is about more than just conventional warfare. It's about security of infrastructure. It's about intelligence."

"A lot of things that would be useful, but it will also cost money. So that's a decision [for] the New Zealand Government," he said.

Earlier his month, Foreign Affairs Minister Winston Peters said New Zealand was a "long way off" from making a decision about participating in Pillar Two of AUKUS.

The Government had to carefully examine what New Zealand might be expected to offer — and what it could take — from the pact before making any decisions, Peters said.

"The Government is a long way from this point of being able to make such a decision. But we should emphasise that it would be utterly irresponsible for any government of any stripe to not consider whether collaborating with like-minded partners on advances in technology is in our national interest."

Green said it was important to recognise that AUKUS is "not a security treaty" similar to the ANZUS defence pact, which is a deal between Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States under which Australia will acquire nuclear-powered submarines for its defence force.

The Government has expressed a deeper interest in associate membership of ANZUS, which would see New Zealand solidify its defence ties with Washington DC in a way unseen in 40 years.

However, Australia's nuclear-powered submarines, which are due to come online in the late 2030s, would not be able to travel through New Zealand's waters given the country's proud and bipartisan anti-nuclear stance.

Asked whether he thought New Zealand’s joining of AUKUS would be viewed by China as "highly antagonistic" for a smaller country such as New Zealand, Green said the diplomatic question is a "good one" that should be debated.

"New Zealand's exports to China are significantly higher than Australia or Japan, but those countries are quite dependent," he said. "The Japanese approach, for example, is as they increase defence spending and join AUKUS, their official policy says they seek a more productive relationship with China."

He countered that if the policy in place remains to not "antagonise China", it would invite Beijing to put more demands upon New Zealand.

"I think the question for any country that's dependent on the Chinese economy, which is basically every country to some level, is at what point do you stand up for your interest in your values? That will be a calculation that varies by country.

"But I would assume for New Zealand that there's no support for giving Beijing a blank check to do what it wants because of economic interdependence. And so the decision then is, [does] New Zealand let Beijing deter moves that enhance New Zealand's own capabilities."

Green said this was a "judgement call" that would vary by country.

He said he did not believe there was pressure on New Zealand by the other participating countries to join, saying the relationship with the US would not suffer if they did not choose to join AUKUS.

"I mean, the US-New Zealand relationship has evolved so much since I was in the White House in areas like space launch, [it's] very significant.

"I don't think the US government is pushing Wellington hard to do this. The way things are going, the tension with China is not a US-China tension – it's a region-wide problem.

"And in Tokyo, in Canberra, in Delhi, people worry about a PLA and Chinese military strategy to develop military capabilities across the whole region, including the Pacific islands. so that's not nothing.

"That is something that has to come into the calculation, I think, for Wellington."

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