Tuesday, 15 October
Under-21 European Championship Qualifiers
Italy v Republic of Ireland, Stadio Nereo Rocco, 5.30pm.
TV/Player coverage
Online
Weather
It'll be nice and warm in Trieste by the time kick-off rolls around. The first half should be played in hot (well, for the visiting team) and dry conditions, the temperature set to be about 21C, but there is a chance of some rain in the second half.
One win from history
All options are on the table for Jim Crawford's Under-21 side, but the bottom line is that victory in Trieste will secure automatic qualification to Euro 2025 in Slovakia.
The Italians lead the group by three points and have a much superior goal difference, but head-to-head is the first tiebreaker and given last November’s 2-2 draw at Turner’s Cross – when Wilfried Gnonto rescued a point late on for the visitors – a win will do Ireland.
A defeat is not the end of the road either. A loss coupled with a Norway failure to beat the already eliminated Turkey at home and it’s a play-off berth for the side.
A draw and a Norway win would mean the sides finish level on 19 points, but that would be curtains for Ireland – as too, obviously, would be an Italy and Norway win – as the Scandinavian side hold the upper-hand in the head-to-head run. Defeats for Ireland and Norway and it's the play-offs for the former.
If Ireland would like some inspiration, then they can look to their one and only competitive U21 win over Italy back in 2012 – and that came on Italian soil too.
What’s more, Noel King’s side finished the game with nine players in the 4-2 win with Derrick Williams sent off in the first half and Anthony Forde dismissed late on when Ireland led by three goals.
Aaron Doran (2), Sean Murray and Conor Henderson were all on target with goalkeeper Aaron McCarey saving a penalty from former Juventus, Borussia Dortmund and Sevilla striker Ciro Immobile.
Want a bit more hope? Current Italy manager Carmine Nunziata was on the line that day as assistant to Devis Mangia and the first group game between the countries finished 2-2...
A less enjoyable omen is that two years ago, ahead of the qualification for the 2023 tournament, Ireland headed to Italy in their final group game knowing a win would seal qualification but lost 4-1. Their nearest opponents, in that case Sweden, failed to win their final game so Ireland made the play-offs - maybe something they'd accept right now even if they would go on to suffer penalty heartache against Israel to miss out on the tournament in Romania and Georgia.
Late drama shaping Ireland’s campaign
Group A of qualifying has been dominated by late goals that have altered the entire complexion of the group.
Ireland are no stranger to that drama, for good and for bad.
Most recently, there was the heartbreak of last Friday’s controversial last-gasp equaliser from Norway, the result that possibly has had the biggest impact on qualifying.
The goal never should have stood, Spanish referee Javier Alberola Rojas and his officials missing a clear shirt tug on Anselmo Garcia MacNulty.
Player of the match Seán Roughan spoke eloquently immediately afterwards, belying his youth with a calm and composed review that focussed on their own mistakes rather than the big decision that went the way of Norway.
"Nothing in life is easy" - A diplomatic Sean Roughan takes Norway's last-gasp equaliser on the chin and insists the Republic of Ireland U21s will head to Italy on Tuesday still believing they can make the play-offs #RTEsoccer pic.twitter.com/htUBXXC2xA
— RTÉ Sport (@RTEsport) October 11, 2024
Andreas Schjelderup’s goal came in the 93rd minute, while Gnonto’s strike for Italy in Cork at the start of qualifying came even later, 96 minutes in. That can’t feel like anything but four points dropped, four points that would have left a play-off spot guaranteed at least.
Ireland also conceded a goal to Latvia’s Lukass Vapne in the 92nd minute, but they still won 2-1.
Late goals have also come their way though, with their two wins over Turkey coming courtesy of strikes in the 96th and then, in the return leg, 84th minute from Aidomo Emakhu and Sam Curtis respectively.
Italians unbeaten but not unbeatable
The loss column for Italy reads zero, their goals conceded column reads three – the size of the challenge facing Crawford’s side is obvious – but it is not an impossible one.
Nunziata’s side have drawn three of their nine matches and really shouldn’t have taken anything from Turner's Cross.
While they absolutely dominated in the 0-0 draw with Latvia, missing a succession of headed chances, they were nearly caught out on the counter in the final seconds.
They also controlled matters in the 1-1 draw against Turkey, being hit by a sucker-punch equaliser in additional time, but they needed a fine penalty save from Sebastiano Desplanches when it was 0-0.
The Italians warmed up for this clash with a 5-0 win over Serie D side Livorno last week – Pio Esposito (2), Antonio Raimondo, Riccardo Turicchia and Cesare Casadei with their goals.
The attacking threats should be different here though with the aforementioned Gnonto leading the charge while Roma midfielder Tommaso Baldanzi, who can also play as a 10 or on the left of a front three, is in excellent form.
"They're the group favourites because of the talented players they have, the pool of players they have," Crawford said of Ireland’s opponents.
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