While there will still be one more round of games after this weekend in the BKT United Rugby Championship, this is the last opportunity to impress Ireland head coach Andy Farrell, who will name his squad for next month's four-Test November window on Wednesday.
With an extra game against Australia crammed into the month, Farrell’s squad size is likely to be the same, or even slightly bigger than the 35-player group he brought to South Africa in the summer, while there is also the possibility of a handful of additional 'training panelists’, a common supplement to squads in the last couple of seasons.
While some positions on the pitch look well-settled, there will be some big calls to be made for Farrell, in what will be his final window with the team before he takes a sabbatical ahead of next year’s British and Irish Lions series in Australia.
At hooker, an extensive injury list means the Ireland coach will almost certainly be bringing in an uncapped player, while some returning faces who missed the summer tour of South Africa will be hoping to force their way back in.
PROP
While Farrell selected six props for the tour of South Africa, only two of those were specialist looseheads in the form of Andrew Porter and Cian Healy. With two extra games coming up this month, and that position a priority area for long-term development, it’s almost certain the Irish coach will add at least one more loosie to his group.
Dave Kilcoyne has been a favourite of Farrell’s down the years, but the 35-year-old is still on the way back from long-term injury and yet to feature this season. His Munster team-mate Jeremy Loughman looks like being the next cab off the rank, and has performed consistently – both in tight and loose exchanges – for his province this season.
If Farrell was to bring a fourth loosehead in for some experience in camp, it would likely be Michael Milne of Leinster, who was on the Emerging Ireland tour in 2022. The 25-year-old is still quite raw in terms of experience, and with tightheads Finlay Bealham and Tom O’Toole both capable of covering both sides of the scrum, Milne may need an injury to break into the full squad.
At tighthead, things look settled barring an injury in these next two games. Tadhg Furlong and Bealham are the established one-two for the big games, while O’Toole will likely be rotated in for at least one of the four games.
Oli Jager made his debut in the Six Nations and travelled on the tour of South Africa, but the Munster man’s recent neck injury could see him miss out. If Jager isn’t fit, then Connacht tighthead Jack Aungier appears to be the next man in, having been a big part of the recent Emerging Ireland tour.
HOOKER
With Dan Sheehan and Tom Stewart definitely unavailable, and the injury uncertainty around Rónan Kelleher and Rob Herring, it would come as no surprise to see four hookers included in Farrell’s squad.
Kelleher is still rehabbing after a minor ankle procedure and could make it back for the first game against New Zealand on Friday 8 November as a best-case scenario, while Herring is still "week to week" with a calf issue that has persisted since pre-season.
Should that pair not be available for the first game against the All Blacks, Connacht’s Dave Heffernan looks like the current favourite for the number 2 jersey, having been a late call-up on the South African tour, while also impressing in the opening four games of this season.
Munster’s Diarmuid Barron has been involved in Ireland squads in the last two years, although the 26-year-old's concussion early in last week’s defeat to Leinster means he’ll miss Saturday’s game against Stormers.
His Munster team-mate Niall Scannell could be drafted in as a steady hand on the tiller, but if Farrell is planning long-term, Leinster’s Gus McCarthy could come into the mix, with the 21-year-old catching the eye early in the season.
LOCK
While Joe McCarthy is carrying a hamstring injury, it doesn’t look like being a major concern, and he should be a certainty to be in the squad alongside Tadhg Beirne and James Ryan. Iain Henderson missed the summer Test series against the Springboks due to injury, but the Ulster captain has a lot of credit in the bank and it would be a surprise for him to be left out of the November window.
Ryan Baird has seen a very small amount of game time this season, and suffered a concussion in Leinster’s win against Munster last week, but given his versatility, that should not prevent him from being part of next Wednesday’s squad.
Anything beyond that group will depend on the squad size the Farrell goes for. With an estimated squad size of 35 or 36 players, and the versatility of some second and back rows to cover multiple areas, the likes of Munster’s Tom Ahern, Connacht’s Darragh Murray and Ulster’s Harry Sheridan might need some injuries to open the door for a place in camp.
BACK ROW
Just like the second row, the number of back-row spots is likely to land at either five or six, depending on the squad size and the versatility of those involved.
Caelan Doris is locked in and likely to be Ireland’s new captain, with Peter O’Mahony carrying a hamstring injury into the first game against New Zealand.
Even if O’Mahony misses that game, there’s enough rugby to come in the month for him to be involved, while Josh van der Flier will also presumably be part of the group.
For the summer tour of South Africa, Cormac Izuchukwu, Cian Prendergast and Nick Timoney claimed the remaining three places, but the return of Jack Conan to the picture could see one, or even two of those players miss out.
Conan sat out the tour to be home for the birth of his first child, but given how he started this campaign, a return to the squad is expected – presuming the hamstring injury he picked up last week isn't too serious.
Unless this Irish squad is closer to 40 players – or if Farrell springs a surprise by leaving out either O’Mahony or Conan – then one of Izuchukwu, Prendergast and Timoney could be left disappointed, despite all three maintaining strong form.
The reality is that upwards of ten back row forwards could make cases for inclusion.
At Leinster, Max Deegan has been excellent to start the season, as has Ulster’s David McCann. Gavin Coombes at Munster continues to rack up big numbers of tackles and carries, while Alex Kendellen has done his future international prospects no harm whatsoever with his captaincy role on the Emerging Ireland tour.
SCRUM-HALF
This should be one of the more straightforward departments to predict.
If the squad size is in the mid-30s, Farrell would be expected to bring three scrum-halves into camp, with Jamison Gibson-Park, Craig Casey and Conor Murray the presumed trio.
Gibson-Park missed the summer tour due to a hamstring injury, but has looked as sharp as ever in his three games this season, while Casey’s game has become more polished in the last 12 months since becoming first choice for Munster.
Murray put in two sharp performances against the Springboks in July, and while he has only featured off the bench for his province this season, the 35-year-old has been impactful in each of those games and should certainly be part of this squad.
In the event of an injury or an enlarged squad, there are some interesting options. Caolin Blade was a late call-up on the summer tour and has an excellent cameo in the second Test win in Durban, but his starting place at Connacht has been taken by Ben Murphy.
With four tries in four games so far this season, Farrell may well be tempted to get Murphy in to kick the tyres and have a look under the bonnet, even as an additional training panelist, something he has often done in the past. Even then, Murphy would also have to jump ahead of Nathan Doak in the depth chart.
OUT-HALF
Like scrum-half, the options at 10 look straightforward.
Jack Crowley and Ciarán Frawley will likely be the two out-halves in the matchday squad to face the All Blacks, the order of which is still up for debate.
Behind them, Sam Prendergast will be expected to make his Test debut over the course of the month, most likely against Fiji, having started every game of the Emerging Ireland tour this month.
Ross and Harry Byrne will likley need an injury elsewhere to get drafted into the group, while there could be a temptation to bring in Ulster’s Irish-qualified New Zealander Aidan Morgan as a training panelist or development player.
CENTRE
Midfield is also a very settled area of the pitch for Farrell.
Bundee Aki, Garry Ringrose, Robbie Henshaw and Stuart McCloskey have been the regular four in recent seasons, and there’s little to suggest any of them will be dropped this month.
Jamie Osborne will also be included in that group, offering cover both in midfield and at full-back where he covered for Hugo Keenan on the summer tour.
If there are development places on offer, Connacht’s Cathal Forde will be hoping his good start to the season hasn’t gone unnoticed.
WING/FULL-BACK
Six back-three players were involved in the Irish squad that went to South Africa in the summer, including Osborne who made a surprise appearance at full-back for both Tests.
Whether or not the Leinster man is regarded as a centre or full-back by Farrell, the likelihood is that there are roughly five other places up for grabs in the main squad next month.
James Lowe is a certainty to be included, as is Hugo Keenan who missed out on the summer due to his Sevens commitments.
Calvin Nash started every game in Mack Hansen’s injury-absence so far this year, and although the Connacht man would be expected to come back into the group, Nash will more than likely keep his place in the wider squad.
Jimmy O’Brien, Jordan Larmour and Jacob Stockdale were the other three wing/full-back options in South Africa, but with the Leinster pair currently out injured, it leaves the advantage with Stockdale, for whom one more good outing against the Ospreys tonight could be enough to make the cut on Wednesday.
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