Sport loves a David versus Goliath story, especially in cup football. Referring to Drogheda United as a David may be harsh, and Derry City have not quite performed like a Goliath.
But the 2024 FAI Cup final brings together two teams who competed at opposite ends of the league table in this and recent seasons.
Derry City spent most of the 2024 season in second place chasing leaders and eventual winners Shelbourne. That was until a poor end to the campign saw them win one of their last eight and twice after June. That led to a drop to fourth place.
Drogheda United spent the majority of this year in the ninth spot they ultimately occupied at season's end.
A blip during June and July saw neighbours Dundalk leapfrog them but one defeat in nine through late summer and early autumn means they will have the chance to compete for a Premier Division place in a play-off next week.
There is a gap of five places in the league table for the 2024 FAI Cup final opponents. The last time there was a bigger gap of league places between a pair of cup finalists was in 2011 when First Division Shelbourne made it to the second Aviva Stadium final in 2011 to face Sligo Rovers. Only two other times in the summer era (since 2003) has there been a gap bigger than five places, in 2009 and 2007.
The concerning for Drogheda United may be that the only side to pull off the upset was Sporting Fingal.
The caveat is that did come against a Sligo Rovers team who only finished sixth in what was the first cup final to not feature a top five team since 1991 had Galway United (eighth) beat Shamrock Rovers (sixth).
While that is the only recent example of a cup upset with a gap as big as five places, the overall picture shows that league position is not a big predictor of cup final winners. In the 21 summer era cup finals, a respectable eight times the lower ranked side have left with the cup. However, the average gap in places is only 2.25 for those eight occasions.
Something that doesn't suggest a cup final upset this Sunday is the record of both team this season against teams at the other end of the table. Derry City averaged 1.85 points per game against bottom half sides compared to 1.12 against top half sides. They lost just three of the 20 games, and all were close with a 2-1 scoreline away from home.
City have proved capable of beating all types of opponents in the cup so far. On their way to four wins by an aggregate 8-0 they have overcome top teams like St. Pat’s and Shelbourne, a Bohemians side to struggled in the league and the best the First Division has to offer in Cork City.
It gives them the chance to be just the fifth team ever to win the FAI cup without conceding a goal all tournament. A clean sheet with a win would see them follow Sligo Rovers in 2010, Shamrock Rovers in 1968, Dundalk in 1958 and Athlone Town in 1924 as the only teams to achieve this.
As they were eliminated on penalties in 2023 after a scoreless draw with eventual winners St. Pat’s, Ruaidhri Higgins men have not actually conceded for 721 minutes of cup football. They have played 11 games without losing in the FAI cup (excluding penalties) going back to a second-round loss to Finn Harps in 2021.
Meanwhile Drogheda United struggled when faced with higher ranked opposition this league season. They took just 0.6 points per game against the top five but had more than double (1.37) against sides in their own half. They only managed one win out of 20 as a clear underdog.
They have not had the opportunity to show themselves as capable of better in cup competitions as their wins came over only one Premier Division team (the only one they placed above in Dundalk), one non-league side and two from the First Division.
What they have managed to do is to score an incredible 18 goals on their route to the final. That’s more than they managed in their previous six cup campaigns combined and only one fewer than UCD scored in all of the 2023 Premier Division season.
But that one league win over a top five side may provide the hope and the blueprint for Drogheda overcoming Derry City. The Drogs do hold a win over the Candystripes this season and it came as recently as September 27th.
In that game they had their eighth lowest possession share at 32.2% and fifth-fewest completed passes with 136. But their good counter play saw they take three more shots (12 to 9) and take the points with a 2-1 win. Both goals coming with Douglas James-Taylor feeding Frantz Pierrot.
2024 has been a year of close competition and surprising outcomes. Shelbourne won the league despite starting out as big outsiders, both promoted teams competed for European qualification and the dominant team of the 2010s, Dundalk, dropped out of the top flight.
The unpredictable nature of this season and recent results suggest that it is possible for Drogheda to overcome the odds. But as no side has won the FAI Cup with a league ranking as low as theirs since 2009, it would still be a remarkable achievement.
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