Tight Belfast battle on cards as Leinster visit Ulster with one eye on Champions Cup final

Michael Glennon Michael Glennon | 05-18 16:15

One year ago, a week out from the Champions Cup final, Leinster hosted Munster in the Aviva Stadium with one eye off the ball.

Having finished the regular season top of the BKT URC pile, Leo Cullen's side had assured themselves a home run to a final they wouldn't reach.

In the space of seven days their season fell apart.

A routine quarter-final win over the Sharks, and Munster’s win in Glasgow, set the rivals on a collision course that Cullen reckoned he didn’t need his best horses for.

Only three of the starters from the 16-15 defeat, Jimmy O’Brien, Robbie Henshaw and Jack Conan, lined out against La Rochelle at the same venue seven days later. Leinster got off to a flying start in that game but wilted badly in the second half.

This year, however, the dynamic around their pre-Champions Cup final tie has changed with the fixture list removing the jeopardy from their round-17 meeting with Ulster this evening (7.35pm).

Leinster, in second, are well placed and two more points will secure a home quarter-final, while nine would be enough for a home semi-final, should they get there.

That, along with the recent example of the game against Northampton - where Leinster's frontliners had a three-week break since the quarter-final win over La Rochelle - has meant Cullen has once again decided that his players don't need a run-out one week from their latest shot at a fifth star.

Leinster held on for a three-point win over Northampton

The worrying fall-off at the end of the 20-17 Saints win will have been discussed with Jacques Nienaber and the rest of the management but the decision is to place most of their eggs in the Champions Cup basket.

Leinster have Hugo Keenan and James Ryan back in harness – the duo needed to get some game-time after layoffs – but the rest of the team named yesterday are unlikely to make the starting XV next week.

Last weekend's run-out for the regulars in a 61-14 win over Ospreys is deemed enough to prime the side but only the result of their match against Toulouse, top of the Top14, will determine the wisdom of this selection.

Defeat this evening for the visitors wouldn't be a disaster, with a home match against Connacht in the final round to come, but it would make achieving the top seed very difficult.

Glasgow, ahead by a point, have Zebre at home in the last game and are well capable of taking points off Lions in their 3.05pm kick-off today.

Ulster start the day in sixth place on 49 points, 10 points worse of than last season when they finished second behind Leinster in the regular season.

If the Munster example last season wasn’t recent enough, Leinster can always look back to the January meeting between the teams to show just what can happen when Ulster hit their straps.

That rainy winter night, under then coach Dan McFarland, the province upset Leinster with a masterclass from Billy Burns, whose playmaking led to three tries.

Asked if they had seen Leinster coming after their 22-21 win, Munster-bound Burns (above, c) said: "If you're asking if we were well prepared, yes.

"We knew the game that they were trying to play, especially defensively with crazy line-speed at times and it worked for us."

It was a time when Leinster were still fresh to Nienaber’s defensive restructuring and Ulster won’t be able to rely on any element of surprise this evening.

The first 40 minutes of Leinster’s win over Northampton saw their defence completely suffocate the Saints.

The system is bedded in and Ulster, who have won three of their last five against the visitors, will have to come up with something new to breach the lines.

Ulster have suffered just one league loss on home soil this season, that coming against Edinburgh in round seven, and have won their last three games under Richie Murphy, who was appointed as permanent head coach earlier this week.

However, the home wins over Cardiff (19-17) and Benetton (38-34) and last Saturday's 31-20 success at Scarlets belies their actual improvement, reckons Bernard Jackman.

Jacob Stockdale scores against the Scarlets

"Every win they get will go towards healing their self-belief and mindset and the vibe.

"You couldn’t back them on form. Leinster will want a big performance going into the final, they need points. I wouldn’t expect any slip-ups."

The Ulster cause, in the quest for knock-out rugby, is aided by the fact that Edinburgh and Benetton, rivals currently sitting in seventh and eighth, play off in their final game meaning only a limited number of points are available from that round for either side.

Likewise, Connacht’s difficult run-in, against Stormers in today’s 5.05pm kick-off and Leinster away in round 18, means they will need to produce something special to add to their tally.

Tonight also marks a goodbye for a number of Ulster players as the club bids a likely farewell to the Kingspan Stadium for the season.

Burns and Will Addison move on and the club will also hope to send the Ireland internationals off on a high, with what would be a fourth successive interprovincial victory.

Luke Marshall, Angus Curtis, Greg Jones, Steven Kitshoff, Dave Ewers, James French and Shea O’Brien also had their departures confirmed earlier this week.

Leinster’s strength in depth has been one of their differences against competitors and this game presents a last chance for anyone hoping to earn a place in the 23 next weekend. Their desire to please could be a deciding factor.

The match-ups look even on paper and an tight battle is in store.

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