After a late loss to Ulster on Saturday evening, Leinster will aim to put their URC disappointment behind them ahead of a pivotal European week.
The psychology around Leinster being unstoppable has certainly changed. The province have been at the top of the URC table for a large part of the season, they now find themselves third heading into their Champions Cup final week.
Without getting too hysterical about their league position, and it must irk them that they've given away home advantage, none of that will matter if they bring home the top prize by beating Toulouse this weekend in London.
Being fair to Leinster, there were probably only three players in the 23 last weekend that could start this week. Hugo Keenan and James Ryan’s return came just in time to get high quality game time before taking on Toulouse.
Will Connors was also back in the squad and might be used in the same role as their game against La Rochelle. He had a few jackal penalties in Belfast to get back in the groove and is a leader in chop tackling, which could be important against the massive Toulouse pack.
There were others, like Ronan Kelleher, Jack Conan, Michael Ala’alatoa and Harry Byrne that should feature from the bench against Toulouse and who won’t like how the Ulster game played out. They’re supposed to be pushing for starting spots, and losing to Ulster won’t help their cause.
Ulster may also have exposed some areas that Toulouse will be interested in. When you factor in the impact that a change in personnel will have, there are still patterns of play that will interest the French rugby giants.
Leinster leave space on the edge if you can manage their internal defensive pressure. Ulster missed a couple of wide spaces early on, once on the short side of the ruck and another when they could have played to the far touch line if Billy Burns was aware in his secondary, deep position behind his centres.
As the first half played out, Ulster managed to pass to those edges and create opportunities, some of which they failed to convert. Will Addison was at the heart of many positive Ulster plays, he was held up over the line on one occasion where Ulster exposed the Leinster width.
He also executed a quality kick pass to Mike Lowry, but Lowry was unfortunate not to score with a good technical refereeing call from Andrea Piardi; Lowry hadn’t regained his feet when releasing the ball and picking it up again before crossing the line.
Those kick passes and wide passes over the top of an aggressive defensive line speed are second nature to Toulouse if they can get some parity or front foot ball with their big pack.
To disrupt Dupont, Ntamack and the Toulouse potency in attack, you'll have to stop them at source. That could be at the set piece but also at the breakdown
Leinster were also guilty of being messy around the breakdown against Ulster, but that is how they’ve set up under Jacques Nienaber. He’s made them much more confrontational at the breakdown, which we have seen from South Africa in the past when disrupting Ireland’s attacking flow at the World Cup.
This will be a strength of Leinster when facing Toulouse this weekend, but they’ll need to stay on the right side of the referee and make sure they’re rolling away properly, unlike last weekend.
To disrupt Antoine Dupont, Ntamack and the Toulouse potency in attack, you’ll have to stop them at source. That could be at the set piece but also at the breakdown. Leinster commit a lot of numbers to that breakdown when counter rucking. They must make sure that adding numbers slows the ball down for Toulouse, to allow the Leinster defence to stay on top.
If you pile numbers into a breakdown and fail to slow the delivery down, the attack will have a numerical advantage and you don’t need to give Toulouse a second invitation to throw some passes.
By effectively adding numbers to the breakdown, you force the opposition to do the same to secure their ball. Bringing the opposition away from their attacking structures should give you a defensive advantage, but we all know how comfortable Toulouse can be with an unstructured attack.
The added bonus when attacking the opposition breakdown is you can get after their 9 and give them a lot more attention, taking away their influence on attacking proceedings. Leinster will want to get the ball out of Dupont’s hands so I’d expect them to make it very difficult when the ball is at the ruck.
As a solution to that, I’d expect to see Toulouse avoiding breakdowns as much as possible. If you’ve watched the evolution of Ireland and then Leinster under Nienaber, you’ll know just how good Caelan Doris, Josh Van Der Flier, Will Connors, Dan Sheahan and others are when it comes to harassing the opposition playmakers.
Toulouse have the ability to play away from that strength by keeping the ball alive, but winning the physicality up front is key to that strategy, or else they’ll fire the ball around without going forward and will run themselves into trouble.
Leinster have been brave in the past when it comes to foregoing kickable penalties in favour of kicking to the corner to put games to bed. They missed an opportunity to go four points up after Tom Stewart conceded a breakdown penalty. With a one-point advantage, Leinster opted for a maul, but Tom Stewart recovered the ball with a penalty of his own.
Expect Leinster to keep more scoreboard pressure with shots at goal this weekend. It’s a European cup final, not a league game at the Kingspan Stadium. South Africa have been experts at building scoreboard pressure and I’d expect Nienaber to exert some influence there, if it is within his remit.
While last weekend’s loss to Ulster has given some clues to the blueprint when beating Leinster, the personnel in any game strategy makes a very tangible difference.
Dan Sheahan, Jamison Gibson-Park, Ross Byrne, Robbie Henshaw, Tadhg Furlong and others will ensure that this Leinster machine is perfectly calibrated going into their most important European game in the last number of years.
It feels like it’s now or never for this group. If Ross Byrne can exert the same dominance that he showed in the La Rochelle victory, then I think that Leinster’s attack will cause too much trouble for the often passive Toulouse defence.
It’s a battle of two European juggernauts, the final that neutrals were hoping for and a huge occasion to showcase the best positive rugby experience at club level.
I’m favouring Leinster to do the business.
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