After turning their season around under new head coach Richie Murphy, Ulster will face Leinster in the URC quarter-final in Dublin.
Ulster gave a good account of themselves in Thomond Park, and their improvements are obvious. However, when the going got tough Ulster ran out of steam and the longer the game went on, the less likely they looked like causing an upset.
Their scrum was under pressure in the second half, allowing Munster a foothold into the game. Once Munster cut out their own mistakes in possession, they took control of the game with relative ease. It was a slow start from the league leaders, who were careless with the ball in the first half.
When they held possession for multiple phases and played through the Ulster defence instead of obsessing with going around it, they caused problems. Problems that Leinster will take note of, heading into the weekend.
Ulster have turned Leinster over twice this season, something that other teams could only dream of. In the first game in January, Leinster had a stronger side out too, so it wasn't one of their much changed URC sides while rotating for the Champions Cup, as it was in the most recent round at the Kingspan Stadium a couple of weeks ago.
Both times Leinster were close enough to snatching victory. They thought they had the win up in Belfast, but Ulster hold no fear when it comes to Leinster, winning with a late John Cooney penalty.
Ulster used their kicking game to cause Leinster a lot of problems in January, something that may have been a product of bedding in a new system around the Leinster defence and understanding how much space an aggressive front field defence leaves for the back field players.
Since then, they’ve shored up their back field defence, but Ulster still managed to build a score early on against them the last time out. Ulster kicked their goals too, a lesson that Leinster may have learned going into the knockout games.
Ulster had a chance to claw back the game against Munster, but on top of their weakened squad due to injuries, their set piece creaked as well. They threw a crooked lineout in the Munster half which could have seen them launch a play to go ahead late in the game.
From that, they gave away a scrum penalty and allowed Munster to see out the game.
That level of set piece isn’t good enough away from home, and certainly won’t be good enough against Leinster. When they get their set piece right they have a maul that would threaten any defence.
Porter and Furlong, if selected, will cause the Ulster scrum a lot of harm, and it will offer them the perfect foothold in the game.
If Ulster can find parity at the set piece, they have built a strong enough game with young and enthusiastic players trying to prove their worth to the new head coach. Their aim needs to be keeping within touching distance of Leinster. If they can do that, and put doubt into the slightly fragile minds of Leinster, they have every chance. They’ve done it twice this season.
However, Leinster should be too strong the third time around. Interprovincial matches can sometimes be the ultimate leveller, but on merit, I think Leinster will have too strong a squad for Ulster this weekend, and they’ll be playing with a desperate chip on their shoulder following their disappointment in the Champions Cup.
If Ulster defend with the soft underbelly that Munster exposed in the second half, Leinster will beat them at the gain line repeatedly and find the game pretty simple.
Richie Murphy has already spoken in the media following their last weekend, creating the underdog narrative pretty early in the week. He’s right to do so, the emotional edge that Ulster can bring to this game will be their best chance at beating Leinster. If they leave it to set piece dominance or phase play brilliance, you would think Leinster will find it too easy.
If they can create doubt in the Leinster minds, they might have something to play for towards the end of the game.
If Leinster get into their groove early on, they could be a dangerous animal in these URC knockouts. Ciaran Frawley deserves his shot at driving Leinster to success. Ross Byrne has been good for Leinster, but there’s that element of doubt when they get to the final stage. Frawley could be a fresh approach, and with his ability to kick under pressure, he’ll offer certainty from the tee as well as more threat at the gain line.
Ross Byrne is passive at the tackle line, shipping passes laterally. That’s what Ulster were comfortable with last weekend. When Carbery, Crowley, O'Brien and the Munster pack played through Ulster, they picked them apart. Calvin Nash’s try, from a spectacular Casey pass, was the best phase play attack of the game. That and the Izichukwu line break for Matty Rea’s second half response.
Frawley offers something similar to Crowley, and could unlock the Ulster defence. If not now, then when? Frawley’s performances could provide the answers to the Sam Prendergast loan move to Connacht.
If Frawley performs, then Leinster could risk a short-term loan. If they won’t go with Frawley now, then it’s nearly Prendergast’s time to step up.
Ulster can throw caution to the wind against Leinster, they’re in bonus territory now. Losing a close game would allow them to turn the page and start next season with a lot of excitement. A big loss would leave question marks.
Leinster should run out winners. Munster had a late surge last year and used Leinster to propel themselves to victory. However, this is a very different Leinster side, carrying grief and desperation.
They’ll dispatch Ulster this weekend, en route to URC redemption.
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