As the Bulls and Glasgow drew the curtain down on the United Rugby Championship in Pretoria yesterday, it brought us towards the final chapter of this seemingly endless rugby season.
It's now more than a year since Andy Farrell's Ireland squad gathered at the Irish Rugby high performance facility in Dublin to begin pre-season training for the 2023 Rugby World Cup, and we’re still three weeks away from the final call.
The rugby season won't exactly be petering out; a two-Test series away to the world champions South Africa after a grueling season could go badly wrong if not taken seriously enough, and as such Farrell has named a largely settled squad for what is just Ireland’s third tour of South Africa this century.
The Ireland coach isn’t expected to make too many drastic changes to his side from the Six Nations championship success earlier this year.
Injuries and absences have forced his hand in some respects though, and we look at the decisions he faces before Ireland and South Africa meet in their first Test at Loftus Versfeld on Saturday 6 July.
Who starts at scrum-half?
The big surprise from Tuesday’s squad announcement was the absence of Jamison Gibson-Park, who suffered a hamstring injury in Leinster’s URC semi-final defeat to the Bulls.
Had the 32-year-old been fit, he would most likely have been a locked-in starter for Farrell in both Tests in Pretoria and Durban, and his absence creates an intriguing dilemma for the Ireland head coach.
Connacht’s Caolin Blade has been brought in as the third scrum-half in the squad, but the selection trends of recent seasons would suggest Munster pair Conor Murray and Craig Casey are most likely to be the Test match pair used this summer.
At Munster, Casey appears to be ahead of Murray in the depth chart, with 18 of his 21 appearances for the province this season coming from the start, with the experience of Murray brought on in the second half to manage the game.
At national level though, Murray remained ahead of his provincial teammate in the pecking order, playing four of Ireland’s five games in the Guinness Six Nations.
Stylistically, there’s a strong case to be made for Casey to jump into the starting shirt for the tour of South Africa. With his high-energy game, he’s a closer fit to Gibson-Park's style than Murray, who can still make a significant contribution off the bench in managing a game.
As a 25-year-old, Casey is no longer a prospect, and while he’s been a regular in Ireland squads for more than three years and has won 14 caps, he’s yet to be trusted in a major Test from the start.
More than a third of his international appearances have come against Italy, while the Azzurri have been the opposition for three of his four Irish starts, with the other being against the USA in 2021.
With Gibson-Park likely to remain first choice for the next couple of seasons, now may be the best opportunity Farrell will get to see if Casey has what it takes for an extended period of a game against world class opposition.
No specialist full-back
One of the big questions that emerged from the World Cup was how Ireland and Leinster would ever cope without Hugo Keenan.
After a season of stop-start injuries, the full-back has now been given Farrell’s blessing to chase an Olympic Sevens medal in Paris, rather than take this tour of South Africa.
It’s an obvious blow to Ireland – Keenan is among the very best full-backs in the game, but the silver lining is that it will force Farrell to further test out his stable of options in the 15 jersey.
Interestingly, the Ireland head coach hasn’t selected any orthodox or specialist full-backs in his squad of 35, but there are multiple options to choose from.
In Ireland’s final game of the Six Nations against Scotland, Jordan Larmour was called in late to start at full-back. It was a no-fuss performance from the 27-year-old, whose perceived issues under the high ball never materialised.
Earlier in the Six Nations, Ciarán Frawley filled in for Keenan against Wales, while he started ten games in that position for Leinster over the course of the season, as well as covering off the bench on a handful of occasions. Reading the tea leaves, however, it looks like Farrell sees his future at out-half.
The form selection looks like being Jimmy O’Brien, who was establishing himself as a reliable option in this Irish team before missing the Six Nations due to a neck injury.
Since returning from that five-month layoff, the versatile back has hit the ground running, with three tries in five games, starting each of Leinster’s last three matches of the season at full-back.
Having made his debut for Ireland off the bench against the Boks at centre in 2022, the Kildare man has also shown he has the temperament to handle big occasions, and has proven himself versatile across multiple positions in the backline.
In at the deep end?
Among the squad of 35 players that will depart for Johannesburg on Tuesday are three uncapped players; Leinster’s Jamie Osborne and Sam Prendergast, and Ulster second/back row Cormac Izuchukwu.
Of the three, Osborne looks to be the closest to seeing gametime during the Test series, having been a regular in Irish squads back as far as the start of 2023.
Still just 22, the Leinster centre has been trusted consistently by Leo Cullen and started alongside Robbie Henshaw throughout the Champions Cup knockouts for the province while Garry Ringrose was injured.
The issue for Osborne is where he fits, and when. With Henshaw, Ringrose, Bundee Aki and Stuart McCloskey all experienced centres in the squad, there are a lot of mouths to feed across a two-Test series, and if Osborne is to see gametime, it would require at least two of those players to sit out altogether.
Prendergast doesn’t have as big a logjam to navigate, but history shows that Farrell likes to get a good look at his players in camp before exposing them to Test rugby. The inclusion of Frawley among three out-halves would suggest that he and Crowley will be the 10s used across the series, but Prendergast is still just one injury away from a likely debut this summer.
Izuchukwu’s inclusion is just-reward for an outstanding second half to the season for the 24-year-old, who is the latest young Irish second row who has found a new role as a blindside flanker.
Jack Conan’s absence does potentially open the door for another loose forward in the matchday squad, particularly if Farrell goes with a 6:2 split to combat the physicality of the South Africans, but that potential jersey looks more likely to be a shootout between Cian Prendergast and Nick Timoney, who already have credit in the bank.
Izuchukwu is a long-shot to see gametime in the series, but the Offaly man has a real chance to impress the Irish coaching ticket for the first time. Not bad for a player who was regularly playing All-Ireland League rugby last season.
Future loosehead options
The depth chart in the front row is relatively healthy, with Dan Sheehan and Rónan Kelleher both having a good age profile, with an experienced option in Rob Herring, while behind them Tom Stewart and Diarmuid Barron are both also going to be around squads over the coming years.
At tighthead, Farrell has good options behind Tadhg Furlong. Finlay Bealham is now a proven Test player, while Oli Jager is now also in the mix.
With that in mind, it was curious to see Farrell going with four tighhead props and just two looseheads in his 35-man squad.
Developing another loosehead prop has to be high up on Farrell’s list of priorities in this World Cup cycle. While Andrew Porter is locked-in as first choice and one of the best in the world, the future of the position beyond him looks less clear.
Cian Healy turns 37 in October, and looks likely to win the five caps he needs to become Ireland’s record appearance holder, with Brian O’Driscoll currently having that record on 134.
Jeremy Loughman appeared to be next cab off the rank, but despite finishing out the season impressively with his province, the 28-year-old has found himself on the outside looking in this summer.
It raises the question of whether Tom O’Toole is being primed for a potential switcheroo across the scrum. The Ulster prop, now 25, is very much part of the furniture in Ireland squads, but his game time across the last three seasons of international rugby has been low, with 13 caps, and all but two of them off the bench.
Jager’s presence in the squad leaves Ireland well-stocked on the tight side, and if one of Porter or Healy does pick up an injury or suspension in the next fortnight, it will leave Farrell needing to call on one of O’Toole or Bealham to plug a hole in the teamsheet.
Given his experience covering that position, it’s likely Bealham would be the man to do so if needed on this tour, but Farrell may want O’Toole to consider a switch long-term.
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