South Wairarapa and Carterton households could be faced with an average water bill of $7000 by 2035 if Wairarapa councils go solo for transformational water reform.
This would be in addition to the rates charged by councils to fulfil other local government functions.
In Masterton, the average water bill could reach $3000, and Tararua, $5000, if councils did not partner up.
At a joint Carterton and South Wairarapa council workshop on Thursday, elected members were told that if councils joined forces, customers would have lower bills.
As a combined "Wai+T" (Wairarapa plus Tararua) entity, the projected average annual water bill would be just over $5000 in South Wairarapa and Carterton, $2000 in Masterton, and $4000 in Tararua by 2035.
For affordability, the Wellington regional model still won the battle, with the average water bill estimated to reach about $4300 by 2035, dropping to a long-term sustainable price of about $2600.
Under a Wairarapa model without Tararua, the average water bill was estimated to reach about $5000 by 2035, dropping to a long-term sustainable price of about $3300.
Elected members were told this level of investment was necessary to make much-needed improvements to the region’s neglected network.
The cost estimates shared with elected members had various limitations and were indicative only.
South Wairarapa councillor Alistair Plimmer said councils were already charging ratepayers "the upper limit of what is affordable".
"If you're talking about [bills] going up more, at what stage does it become absolutely ludicrous because people can't even afford it.
"If you are going to force people who can't afford to pay for this — $3000 to $6000 a year — people will lose their homes over this.
"I think we need to stop using the term affordability because people are watching this presentation and saying, 'affordable? My arse it's affordable, it's not'."
Iwi and hapu representatives at the workshop voiced their concerns about losing their voice in a large Wellington regional model.
Rangitāne o Wairarapa representative Jo Hayes said these concerns were realised when the working group for the Wellington model would only accept one iwi representative from Wairarapa, despite the region having two iwi, Rangitāne and Ngāti Kahungunu.
Dougal List, who presented the Wellington regional model at the workshop, said any entity that spanned a number of rohe and iwi Māori groups would "need a range of relationships at a range of levels".
He said the preferred Wellington option was to establish an asset-owning council controlled organisation (CCO) that would be "a full breadth utility".
It would be a vastly different model to Wellington Water, he said, because it would provide all services directly to water customers and bill directly for water usage and services provided.
The Wellington model was proposing an independent skills-based board, whereas the Wai+T presentation did not go into any level of detail about governance.
Robyn Wells, who led the Wai+T presentation, said the local model would be similar to the Wellington regional plan, except it would be located within the four-district area of Masterton, Carterton, South Wairarapa, and Tararua.
It would also have its own set of values and culture with a "unique Wairarapa-Tararua flavour", fit-for-purpose IT systems, and establishment costs of $5 million, Wells said.
The Wai+T entity would also work closely with Rangitāne and Ngāti Kahungunu across a single rohe.
The Wai+T presentation also did not delve into details on the detailed design of the Wai+T option such as financing arrangements, debt negotiations, or water service delivery models.
This would come after a decision was made on joint arrangements.
Masterton's elected members would meet on Friday for a similar workshop.
A formal report would be presented to each Wairarapa council on October 30 where elected members would decide whether to progress with the larger Wellington regional approach or a bespoke solution.
Councils would then be required to consult on existing arrangements against an alternative collaborative approach and present a water services delivery plan to the Department of Internal Affairs next year.
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