In February of this year Eddie Dunbar must have felt he was living in a bizarre version of Groundhog Day.
Last season he crashed on the opening day of the Volta Valenciana in Spain and suffered a fractured bone in his hand. This year he hit the deck on the opening day of the UAE Tour and was told he had cracked a bone in his other hand.
For two years in a row, he found himself sidelined early in the season, something that was sure to affect his buildup to the Giro d'Italia.
On both occasions it entailed a few days off the bike, an extended period of time on a home trainer, and many weeks away from competition.
Today he lines out in the Giro, his big goal of the year, hoping that another pattern from last season is repeated.
Twelve months ago he went into the race as the designated leader of the Jayco AlUla squad. It was the first time in his career to be a team’s protected rider in a three-week event.
The Corkman rode brilliantly, riding shoulder to shoulder with some of the world’s best riders in the high mountains and was sitting fourth overall with three days to go. Illness would see him slip to seventh by the time the race finished in Rome, but the result was still hugely encouraging.
Aside from being the best Irish showing since Stephen Roche won the race back in 1987, it also proved that Dunbar has what it takes to finish in the podium - or even win - one of cycling’s big three-week races.
"So I think the whole process was good. You were up there with the best and there was a lot learned from it."
Building on that Giro performance was his big goal for this year. Crashing early in the season for a second year in a row was hugely frustrating, but Dunbar did get some good news soon after he flew home from the UAE Tour.
An initial diagnosis of another hand fracture was deemed inaccurate, with the bone being bruised rather than cracked. That sped up his recovery, seeing him back into competition several weeks earlier than last year.
At the time Dunbar felt he would be in better shape starting this year’s Giro than 12 months earlier, but things haven’t quite gone to plan.
He was ninth overall in last year’s Tour de Romandie, his final build-up race, but this time around he found himself off the pace. He was sitting 45th overall with one stage remaining and decided to withdraw in order to have an extra day of recovery before the Giro.
The net result is that he lines out in the Italian race not quite sure where he is at.
"Romandie didn't go quite as well as last year.
"I was just a bit off, the feelings weren't quite there. I trained well after Basques [the Itzulia Basque Country stage race] but I just wasn’t up to race pace last week, unlike last year so that was that was a bit frustrating. But I finished the last hilly day quite good.
Having expected to be in better shape this time around, Dunbar and his coach Alex Camier are a little mystified why things haven’t quite gone to plan.
"I was sick there before Basques, I had a bad chest infection, and there were just a couple of little other bumps in the road this year after the crash," the 27-year-old explained.
"That just happens, you have good runs and bad runs. Hopefully I can just find a bit of form in the next few days and just limit losses."
The Giro starts with a flourish this weekend, with two tough stages on offer. Saturday’s race to Turin features several climbs and could well see the peloton splinter. Sunday’s stage to the Santuario di Oropa is the first summit finish of the race and is likely to see time gaps open up between the race contenders.
Ordinarily he would hope to figure in the battle for stage wins; now, given his uncertain form, he is just trying to stay as close as possible to the other big guns.
"In training my numbers have actually been quite similar," he said, speaking about his power figures.
"But in racing, I was obviously much better this time last year. But the Giro is a long race anyway. There is plenty of time to improve."
So far this season Tadej Pogačar has been the standout star. He’s done just ten days of racing, but has won seven times. In a sport where upwards of 150 riders line out in any given event, that sort of success rate is unprecedented in the modern era.
Twice winner of the Tour de France, Pogačar is attempting an audacious Grand Tour double this year. He’s attempting to win both the Giro and the Tour in the same season, a feat last achieved way back in 1998 by the Italian climber Marco Pantani.
"He's obviously at an incredible level," Dunbar says of the Slovenian.
"And it’s his first time coming to the Giro, so he's going to be pretty motivated to win it, that's for sure. I think he will race it like he rides every race, and that is aggressively.
"It's hard to see any other result in Rome than seeing him in pink [the pink jersey]. But it’s not intimidating at all. It's a three-week race and so you have to focus on your own team and your own capabilities and see where that takes you. If the front of the race is going you have to try to stay with it. Because if you don't, then you're definitely not going to be winning."
Asked to name other contenders, Dunbar pinpoints the Welshman Geraint Thomas (Ineos Grenadiers), second overall last year and a previous winner of the Tour de France.
He also mentions the Australian Ben O’Connor (Decathlon Ag2r La Mondiale), Frenchman Romain Bardet (DSM Firmenich EasyPost) and the Italian Damiano Caruso (Team Bahrain Victorious), who was fourth last time around.
If Pogačar does indeed win overall, Dunbar will find himself up against those named riders plus other contenders for a podium place. He has said more than once that he wants to build on his performance of last year. Seventh in the end, fourth with three days to go until he became ill; he knows he has it in him to excel. Things just have to fall into place.
"If I can improve on last year, that's going to be a big step," he said. "That’s my aim, I would say. To be in the mix there in the top ten again and see how it goes."
This weekend is about limiting any losses. After that, he expects his form to build. If so, that should put him right in the frame for the three weeks ahead.
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