Two provincial finals remain, but only one looks like drawing in the neutrals. It's hard to see anything other than Dublin steamrolling to another Leinster title, but in Clones on Sunday it is like splitting hairs to pick a winner between Armagh and Donegal.
Without any disrespect to Louth, I’m not sure there is much point in dwelling on the Leinster final.
Ger Brennan has done a brilliant job, coming in after the Mickey Harte exit and the doom and gloom that surrounded that. They more than acquitted themselves well in Division 2 and are back in a second successive provincial decider.
If Louth can hold tight and be in the game for 20, 25 minutes, is that an achievement in itself? It’s not even a great thing to say, but that’s the reality.
The question I’d have is how much damage will Sunday inflict on them going into the group stages?
That’s the challenge for Brennan and his team, can they recover well enough as I expect a defeat of at least 15 points?
Last Sunday in Ennis showed what can happen when the venue at least plays in favour of the underdog. Kerry never looked seriously in danger of losing the Munster final, but the game at least was competitive, played out in a cracking atmosphere. At the very least, it had some semblance of an occasion worthy of a provincial decider.
It’s not what we are likely to witness at GAA HQ on Sunday.
Teams might say they want to play in Croke Park, but it’s not benefitting them in any way, shape or form. You should earn your crust, earn your right to play in Croke Park.
I think Dublin themselves are sick of playing in Croke Park for Leinster games where there is no atmosphere or crowd.
They constantly say they would love nothing more than playing around the country, but the one-sided nature of Leinster in the last decade has effectively rendered these games meaningless.
The margin is all that is in doubt, not the result.
That is a world away from the Ulster match-up between Donegal and Armagh, where the figures of Kieran McGeeney and Jim McGuinness loom over the fixture.
Donegal’s march to the final represents a huge turnaround in just 12 months. It’s like two different worlds. Last year they suffered a spring relegation, bowed meekly out of Ulster and sandwiched in between was the news that manager Paddy Carr would depart after just seven months at the helm.
Now back in Division 1, McGuinness is rightly getting all the plaudits as he has changed the narrative around the team entirely.
The chests are out and they are full of confidence. That’s the McGuinness effect, maximising output from each and every player.
He is making them believe they can do things they couldn’t do last year.
On paper, Armagh look better on paper in terms of personnel, but collectively, the way McGuinness has got Donegal playing, they are perhaps stronger collectively.
They got promoted from Division 2 minus three or four of their best players, so the squad depth is improving.
On top of all that, McGuinness and Ulster have a love affair like no other. A record of 15 wins from 16 Ulster games (the sole defeat coming at the hands of Monaghan in the 2013 decider) speaks for itself.
Looking at Armagh, individually they have a really talented forward line. They are dangerous in one-on-one situations and in Rory Grugan - pictured above - they have a player who knits it all together.
If they can get enough ball to him, he can create havoc.
But my gut instinct tells me that having watched Tyrone frustrate Donegal last time out, the Orchard County will make it a complete borefest, 15 players behind the ball.
Tyrone showed that if the game gets into a bit of a stalemate, a possession-based game, it takes away a lot of Donegal’s armoury because they love to break fast and with numbers.
If you get turned over, Donegal are gone. You saw that with the long kickouts against Derry, but Tyrone made sure that didn’t happen. They dropped deep and invited Donegal onto them.
I can see it being a tough, tight affair, but possibly not living up to the billing. I just can’t see teams going toe-to-toe in an attacking sense.
A team may have to show some degree of risk coming down the stretch and I’m a firm believer the team that takes the greater degree of risk prevails.
That safe, monotonous, build-up is not enough to win an All-Ireland, but it might be enough Sunday. At some stage on Sunday, a team in Clones will have to throw caution to the wind.
If you look at the Division 2 final, when Armagh came up short against Sunday’s opponents, they threw the shackles off in the last 10, 15 minutes and looked a really dangerous team.
I feel Armagh are at a crossroads. They have lost out some big games by fine margins and Kieran McGeeney is in his 10th season in charge.
Even the Division 2 final, it was another final and many tipped them to win. Because they didn’t, I think there is huge pressure on Armagh to deliver.
If that need isn’t clearly on display on Sunday, I’d question where they are going as a group.
Ulster success is crucial given their All-Ireland quarter-final defeats the last two years, not to mention last year’s Ulster decider.
McGeeney has done brilliant things with the Orchard County, getting them operating at an elite level, but he has no silverware to show for it. To get to the next level, winning a big game and in particular, an Ulster final, is what is needed.
While such talk among supporters and in the media is generally batted away by players, perhaps it has more of an impact on the men in charge.
As a player, you’re always aware of that pressure. If the group is strong enough, it’s well controlled. Regardless, you’re solely focused on the performance and result.
You have to embrace that pressure. If I was an Armagh player this weekend, the buzz of going to Clones, playing such a Donegal team, there is no need to pay any heed to the outside noise.
That pressure might weigh heavier on McGeeney’s shoulders. Look at last Sunday in Salthill and Galway manager Pádraic Joyce referencing the criticism of his team in a number of interviews.
I found that fascinating, it seemed like a sort of release valve. I’m sure he told the players it doesn’t matter, but it clearly all that chatter had an impact on him.
I’m leaning to Armagh because of the greater need.
I just can’t see how they don’t really go for it on Sunday. I don’t think they are in the All-Ireland conversation, but it would solidify the team’s credentials and gives the group a huge building block.
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