Data dive: The numbers behind Shelbourne's rise

The SSE Airtricity League Premier Division's only unbeaten run came to an end last week, with Shelbourne the last runner to fall. However, over the longer distance, Damien Duff's team have shown they possess the staying power to mount a title challenge.

League titles are not won in a single game and Shels have shown the consistency to be taken seriously not just in the first 10 games of this season, but over the last calendar year.

From a year ago, they have improved dramatically, becoming a dark horse by setting the early pace by displaying many characteristics of champion teams. But can they maintain these characteristics and go all the way?

Longevity

Taking the previous 36 games played by all teams, Shelbourne come a close second to Shamrock Rovers, five points behind, with one loss less and just two more goals conceded.

Although their points total of 68 would only be good enough to win the title in the 2004 and 2010 seasons of the summer era, we are seeing a more competitive league in recent seasons.

Shamrock Rovers points per game of exactly two in 2023 was the lowest of a champion since 2010 and their 2021 and 2022 figure lower than any season between 2013 and 2020. They have already dropped double the number of points lost in 2020, with just half the games played.

Where Shels show up best is how difficult they are to beat. Four losses in the past year are fewer than nine summer-era champions and equal to four. That is based on their defensive record, conceding 0.78 goals per game is better than four previous winners.

Last 36 games

Goalscoring

The area where Shels are most behind where they need to be is in goalscoring, but they have shown encouraging improvement here with two significant jumps.

In 2022, they were the sixth-best scorers with just more than one goal per game. They started 2023 even worse with a paltry four goals from the first eight games. No team scored fewer. From then on, they were a more respectable sixth best.

A second improvement coincided with the addition of Will Jarvis in late July. Since his debut to the current date, only Derry City (40) and Shamrock Rovers (34) have scored more than their 32.

What is impressive with Shelbourne’s goal tally is how they do it in a different way to other top teams. This season, they average only the fifth-most ball possession, the third-fewest touches in the opponent’s box, the fourth-fewest shots and the fifth best xG. But they make the most of their attacks with the third best xG per shot resulting in only Shamrock Rovers outgunning them so far for goals.

Home record

Top teams dominate at home. Only four teams have won a summer-era league title without boasting the highest home points tally, and those four were second-best. Although over the course of the last 36 games they are a close fourth, recent improvement has shown them capable of elite form.

Since the start of last September, they have the most point points (22) ahead of Shamrock Rovers (20) and Derry City (20). That was anchored by a seven-game winning streak across two seasons, their best in the Premier Division since their last league-winning season of 2006.

Over the last 27 at Tolka Park, they have just three defeats, and none by more than a single goal.

Close games

The link between goal difference and points won shows that a hallmark of top teams is being able to win plenty of games at a canter over the course of a season by dominating the weaker sides. But enough wins to find yourself near the top of the table can’t be found without grinding out tight ones – as Shelboure love to do.

Since the start of 2023, no team has been in more games decided by a single goal than Shels – 21. They have a 15-6 win-loss record in those giving them three more wins than anyone else at a win percentage (71%) comfortably above the next best 65%.

None of the 23 games in that time at Tolka Park has been decided by more than one goal, with them taking 12 wins to three defeats. Every other ground has had at least seven games decided by more than one goal in that time.

Head-to-head with rivals

One area where Damien Duff will seek improvement is in his side’s results against other leading teams.

Coming into this season, they had no wins over Shamrock Rovers and were six without a win against Derry City. They also had taken one win form his first seven against St Pat’s.

That has turned around this year, with no losses in three games against those teams, which included two wins.

Entering a hectic run of nine games in the next 35 days will be a real test of their credentials.

Those nine games include two fixtures against both Shamrock Rovers and St Pat’s, as well as a trip to Derry City. Squad depth will be required to produce results in line with 2024, rather than 2022 and 2023.

Shelbourne have risen dramatically from a newly promoted team settling into mid-table for 2022 and much of 2023 to one with a six-point lead after the first round of games for 2024. And that success means they must be taken seriously by their peers.

Favourites for the title Shamrock Rovers have experience of chasing down rivals who have gone quickly from the gun over the long slog of a League of Ireland season.

But if Shelbourne keeping showing improvement in key markers for success, they can make it a very close race.

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