Both Donegal and Galway have confounded their stereotypes this year. Galway are historically associated with stylish and cavalier forward play - and we hear all about that in Mayo - though this year, it's their defensive solidity that's stood out.
They've only conceded one goal in seven championship games this summer and that was from a kickout malfunction. Even before that, they kept five clean sheets in their seven league games.
By contrast, Jim McGuinness is the guru of modern defensive football and yet his teams have racked up heavy scores in several games - 2-23 and 1-23 in their last two games respectively.
In terms of personnel, I feel Galway are probably stronger overall. For the all the focus on Shane Walsh and Damien Comer, they haven't actually proven that reliant on the pair in plenty of games. See Cillian McDaid's stellar performance in the second half the last day.
Paul Conroy is still underrated in my eyes and has given man of the match performances against both Derry and Monaghan this year. Rob Finnerty may have had a limited impact the last day but he was possibly inhibited with injury and had a cracking Connacht final.
The big concern I'd have for Galway is whether they can match Donegal's relentless energy over the full 70 minutes. Jim McGuinness' teams are unquestionably the fittest teams that you'll ever come up against.
Given the injuries and wear and tear within the Galway squad at this stage of the season, I just wonder will be they be able to hold out if Donegal are still in the game and full of running in the closing stages?
So much of Donegal's threat comes from their runners from deep, Ryan McHugh and Peadar Mogan have 1-10 and 0-13 from play respectively and rivalling Oisín Gallen in the scoring stakes (excluding frees).
If that pair are tied down, it could spell trouble for Donegal. They're so reliant on them to break the line. We saw in the Ulster final that Oisín Conaty was detailed to mark McHugh and kept him shackled. If they're subdued, where will Donegal find their strike-runners? Eoghan Bán Gallagher and Ciaran Moore can't be counted upon to do it for a full game. Fortunately, for Donegal, tying their two wing-backs down is easier said than done.
So, get off the fence, I hear you saying! Who am I tipping? Let me see... I will plump, very reluctantly for... Donegal. By a point.
Galway may be better on paper but my hunch is if Donegal are still in the game late on, they'll have the energy and the relentless running power to shade it. Throw in the McGuinness factor - there's no getting away it, it's part of it - and I suspect Donegal will find a way, albeit only by the narrowest of margins.
Saturday's semi-final feels more clear-cut from this vantage point.
It pits Kieran Donaghy against his own county, two teams with very different back-stories. For Armagh, the hope is they've shed a lot of baggage in getting over the line and reaching a first All-Ireland semi-final in 19 years.
A third successive quarter-final loss - and a second one in which they would be favourites beforehand - would have been a sickening blow and possibly too much for Kieran McGeeney to have recovered from.
In the absence of the long-awaited Ulster title win, an All-Ireland semi-final appearance is very tangible evidence of progress.
Having said that, I wasn't overly impressed with them against Roscommon. While they won with a little bit to spare in the finish, they did so against a team who played the majority of the game with 14 men. And still it took them a long while to kill them off and the Rossies hung in the game for long stretches, even with some of their vaunted forwards misfiring.
Conor Turbitt's goal early in the second half gave them that key bit of breathing space, though I do feel a better team than Roscommon could have had them in trouble. They can be a hugely entertaining side and Turbitt up top is having a super year but their default pattern in big games is slipping back into that cautious, defensive formation and I'd expect the same this Saturday.
I feel that Kerry should have enough to hold them at arm's length this weekend. The outcry that followed their dismal game against Derry has just subsided - and God knows, I contributed to it - but oddly, that game should give them a good deal of confidence that they can deal with whatever is thrown at them this time.
It was grim and tedious to those watching, but it's hard to argue with Jack O'Connor's comments afterwards, to the effect that Kerry got stung playing gung-ho football in the 2021 All-Ireland semi-final and weren't going to get caught in the same trap again.
Their forwards have yet to catch fire this year, though given Kerry's route, they mostly haven't had to. We haven't seen the full extent of David Clifford, Paudie Clifford and Seanie O'Shea in 2024. Tony Brosnan, on the other hand, who hasn't always been trusted in the biggest games, has performed well and clipped over two points the last day in a match where scores were hard got.
Ultimately, it comes down to Kerry having too much quality and experience and we'll give them the nod for the win, by three to four points.
In the Tailteann Cup decider, Down's time has to come to end their final hoodoo. They were lucky enough to win the semi-final against Sligo, the game probably hinging on Nathan Mullen's 60th sending off. But remember that Sligo are a rapidly improving, superbly coached team who were minutes away from taking down Galway in the Connacht semi-final.
Laois have had an excellent year under Justin McNulty and it'll probably already be classified as a success regardless of Saturday. But there was a ramp up in quality between the first and second semi-finals in the Tailteann a fortnight ago.
One caveat on Down is the added pressure on them to deliver. Leaving aside their losing record in finals of all descriptions since 1994, they've blown several chances to secure Sam Maguire football in recent years. From this year's Division 3 final, to missing out on promotion last year, to the narrow loss to Armagh in the Ulster final.
That last game did at least demonstrate that Down have the capability of competing at the Sam Maguire grade. On Saturday, they can finally give themselves that opportunity in 2025.
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