Sam Maguire permutations: Which counties on cusp of Tailteann Cup

Conor Neville Conor Neville | 04-24 08:15

After this weekend, the 16 participants in the Sam Maguire Cup will be known, with Pots 3 and 4 in the round robin draw filled.

Ahead of the Leinster and Ulster semi-finals, there are a few counties facing up to a nervous weekend, Westmeath chief among them.

Dessie Dolan's Division 3 champions are currently in the Sam Maguire places, but should just one of Kildare, Down or Offaly (the latter possibly regarded as an extremely long shot) win their upcoming provincial semi, Westmeath will be playing in the Tailteann Cup.

If the Armagh-Down game goes to form on Saturday evening - aka, an Armagh win - then much will hinge on the Louth-Kildare semi-final in Croke Park.

Dessie Dolan's side need Dublin, Armagh and Louth to win this weekend

With Dublin unbackable favourites in the second leg of Sunday's double-header, the Louth-Kildare game would, in that scenario, arguably have greater relevance to Westmeath than for Louth. A Kildare win would see them qualify for Sam in Pot 2, while Louth would enter Pot 4 alongside Cavan, Cork and Meath.

Ger Brennan's side have their fate in their own hands heading into the weekend. Victory over Kildare will give them a second successive Leinster final appearance and confirm the Lilywhites' place in the Tailteann Cup.

Should Glenn Ryan's side avenge their league defeat and gain entry into the Sam Maguire via Pot 2, then Louth will still earn a reprieve provided Armagh and Dublin win their respective provincial semis.

However, a Kildare win combined with a Down win - the least improbable one - then Louth will be in the Tailteann.

Technically, Cork could be playing Tailteann Cup football this year although the chances are impossibly remote.

John Cleary's side were in the deep hole midway through their Division 2 campaign but rallied well with seven points from their final four points to almost assure themselves of entry into the top tier competition, barring an incredible sequence of results.

While Cork finished ahead of Meath in Division 2, Colm O'Rourke's side have been guaranteed Sam Maguire football in 2024 since winning the Tailteann Cup last July.

Thus Cork - ranked 12th in the league - will be the ones to drop out of the top tier competition, should the Down/Offaly double come to pass this weekend. (In that scenario, the Louth-Kildare result would have no impact from their perspective.)

Of course, should that pair of results occur, then Cork being demoted to the Tailteann Cup would be the least noteworthy thing to emerge.

Teams that could fall out of Sam Maguire

Westmeath, Louth, Cork

For Westmeath to fall out - wins for any one of Kildare, Down or Offaly
For Louth to fall out - Kildare win, and one of Down or Offaly to win
For Cork to fall out - Down and Offaly need to win.

SEEDINGS

As far as the seedings go, the only certainties are that Derry and the losers of this weekend's Donegal-Tyrone semi-final will be in Pot 3, while Cavan and Tailteann Cup winners Meath are already destined to be in Pot 4 regardless of any result this weekend.

Roscommon, ranked ninth after the league, would need a highly improbable Down/Offaly double to come through to slip into Pot 4. In that scenario, Derry, Dublin, Armagh and Donegal/Tyrone losers will occupy Pot 3 ahead of them. However, the strong probability is that they will wind up as third seeds.

Monaghan, 10th on league placings, are bound for Pot 3 at present, though a win for either one of Down or Offaly will relegate them to the fourth pot.

For Pots 1 and 2, we will have to wait for the provincial finals in early May.

What we know

Pot 3
Derry, (Loser Donegal/Tyrone)

Pot 4
Cavan, Meath


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