Analysis: We're down to the final four – Scotty Stevenson and Patrick McKendry discuss the merits of each semifinalist, the keys to victory, and their dream final.
PM: Scotty, the Brumbies have arrived in Auckland for their semifinal against the Blues with most Kiwis given them little chance. As we know, no Aussie team has won a Super Rugby playoff in New Zealand. Does their form this season give you any reason to think they will be the first?
SS: It’s a tough hump to get over for the Brumbies but I thought last week they were hard-nosed and gritty against a Highlanders side that knows how to make a nuisance of itself.
The Blues would be advised not to read too much into the shellacking they gave the Brumbies in the regular season – that horse before the cart state of mind has cost this club in the post-season before. Vern Cotter is an astute coach who understands playoff mindset is different to regular season, and his counterpart at the Brumbies, Stephen Larkham, will have been reminding his side of that all week.
The Brumbies look bettered in the backline, but the contact area and set piece will decide this match, and they are the visitors’ bread and butter. No Patrick Tuipolotu. That’s big for the Blues and a young second row will be challenged.
The Blues will be deserved favourites at home but this could be a closer result than many think.
Then there’s the weather to consider… it looks like it could be a grim one at Eden Park. Does that suit the Blues or the Brumbies more?
PM: You could make a case for it suiting the Brumbies better. As you say, they are excellent at the set piece fundamentals and Tuipulotu is a big loss, but I don’t think his absence is a game changer for the Blues.
I have been impressed with the Blues’ pack this season. They have a much harder edge to them under Cotter and I doubt we’ll see them fold like they did against the Crusaders in the grand final a couple of years ago.
They will provide problems for the Brumbies’ pack, especially in the red zone where they have been so ruthless this year.
The Brumbies are more than a set piece and pick-and-go outfit. Outside backs Andy Muirhead and Tom Wright were on the board last week against the Highlanders and are dangerous when put in space.
Overall, though, the Brumbies will be hoping to keep it as tight as possible and sneak home down the stretch. If the weather limits quality touches of the ball for men such as Rieko Ioane, Mark Tele’a, Stephen Perofeta, and Caleb Clarke, the Brumbies will be happy.
Hoskins Sotutu is tackled by the Drua during the Blues' win at Eden Park. (Source: Photosport)
Speaking of strike weapons, which Blues player has impressed you the most this season?
SS: For starters, the team cohesion has been the standout. That’s probably the biggest improvement in the side, the lift across the board.
But there have been exceptional individual performers, too.
Hoskins Sotutu was the most talked about forward in the competition through the first half of the regular season and he has largely kept the foot down into the playoffs. His ability to make the big moments matter has been the hallmark of his season, and he has been the perfect foil for the likes of Dalton Papali'i, Adrian Choat, and Akira Ioane. The simplified central red zone attack has been inspired, too, and it suits Sotutu and the other power forwards.
The other key performer has been Harry Plummer. It's instinctive to pay homage to the outside backs but Plummer has operated with composure, and with genuine tact.
The Blues needed a no-fuss operator as their game driver and Plummer fits the bill. He has an eye for the kick option, puts his pack in good areas, and has the midfield experience to understand how to provide the best level of service for those outside him.
Crucially, it appears the team have full faith in his decision-making ability, too. And that matters, especially at this point in the season.
Assuming you feel the Blues get the job done but I wonder if you feel as confident picking the winner of the second semifinal in Wellington?
PM: Nowhere near as confident. The Canes have played with swagger and intensity throughout the regular season – almost like, dare I say it, the Crusaders of old. They’ve just looked comfortable – that their skillsets and game plan are perfectly in tune.
The Chiefs? Not so much – until last weekend’s stunning performance in the first half of their quarter-final win over the Reds. That was a pretty good Reds team but they blew them off the park. Blues coach Vern Cotter the other day said he felt the Chiefs had “taken their masks off”, and I agree. They showed their true quality.
I suspect it will come down to one or two moments. I’m edging towards the Chiefs now, though, for one reason in particular that I’ll come to in a bit.
Damian McKenzie - New Zealand's form first-five is key for the Chiefs. (Source: Photosport)
And you?
SS: The Chiefs will take a points victory of sorts into this one considering Clark Laidlaw has opted for a 6-2 split on the bench. That’s a sign of respect for the brutality of the Chiefs at the gain line and at ruck.
Like the Blues, the Canes would do well to shake any notion of superiority from the regular season results. Both games could have gone either way and the Chiefs played their play off hand last week – they were dialled in and frighteningly quick at transition.
There is a sense that Damian McKenzie is in a flow state at the moment, aided and abetted by a rejuvenated ALB, who knows when to peak, and Shaun Stevenson, who has been one of the best attacking weapons in the competition this year.
The form of Wallace Sititi last week will have raised a few eyebrows in Wellington, too. Heretofore it has been the Lakai-Iose show, but the Chiefs loose forwards looked like champions last week.
Expect Brett Cameron to have a target on his chest all game long.
But back to that one reason, Pat, please do tell…
PM: The old saying that 'No.10s lead teams to championships' rings true again here, I think. In other words, the team with the best No.10 generally wins the thing. McKenzie is the best first-five in the country by far and, as you say, is finding his flow. He was superb last weekend but has been all year. He may be the difference.
TJ Perenara’s rejuvenation has helped Cameron significantly at the Hurricanes, but I’m going Chiefs due to the McKenzie factor and the team’s devastation at being rolled by the Crusaders in the big dance last year. Their motivation may be unsurpassable.
Last thoughts: What’s your dream final and why?
SS: Tough question to answer but for pure entertainment I would have to pick Blues and Canes. They have been the leaders of the pack all season and that last clash at Eden Park was instant classic material.
I would love to see them take it to each other for a third time this year, with so much riding on it for a couple of national representative fringers looking for one last chance to impress.
That said, the Blues and Chiefs would create a genuinely spicy meatball and surely the neighbourly stoush would guarantee a massive crowd at Eden Park.
Then again, anyone keen on a trip to Canberra?
A rejuvenated TJ Perenara in action against the Rebels last weekend. (Source: Photosport)
What’s your dream final?
PM: I agree on a Hurricanes v Blues grand final extravaganza – although I have a feeling the Chiefs may upset them. The Canes have been the most consistent team throughout and deserve to get to the big dance due to their quality and top seed status.
Whatever happens, though, I just wish we get a little taste of that promised spicy meatball beforehand. The build-up to this weekend has been as low-key and respectful as a one-person wake.
Am I alone here?
Final, final thought: Does rugby need its players and coaches to hype its showpiece events a little more? Or is this the best we can hope for in the modern age?
SS: Yes. It does. And I know the new Super Rugby Commission understands this too.
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